# KONAN Amani Dieudonné

> Global Statistician | Data Scientist | ML & AI Architect | Data Engineer | Full-Stack Developer | Strategic Advisor

Global Statistician, Data Scientist, Machine Learning & AI Professional with 13+ years of experience across the United Nations system, international development finance, and global organizations. MIT-certified in Data Engineering and AI, with advanced degrees in Statistics & Econometrics. Expert in the full data-to-intelligence pipeline: from statistical modeling and data engineering to AI/ML systems, full-stack development, and strategic advisory. Currently completing a Doctor of Business Administration (DBA) in Artificial Intelligence focused on AI adoption in international development.

Content is available in English (/en/…) and French (/fr/…). Prices are in the currency shown. Publications marked "subscription" need a research subscription to read in full; their metadata is public.

## Topics

- [Africa Economics](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/africa-economics): 16 publication(s), 2025–2026
- [Digital & Fintech](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/digital-fintech): 4 publication(s), 2025
- [Agriculture](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/agriculture): 3 publication(s), 2025
- [AI & Technology](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/ai-technology): 3 publication(s), 2025
- [Macroeconomics](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/macroeconomics): 3 publication(s), 2025–2026
- [Trade Finance](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/trade-finance): 2 publication(s), 2025
- [Data Governance](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/topics/data-governance): 1 publication(s), 2025

## Publications (34)

- [Why Sell Cocoa Before the Boom? Forward Pricing and the Farmgate Wedge in Cocoa Markets: Cocoa Years 1999/00 to 2025/26](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/why-sell-cocoa-before-the-boom-forward-pricing-and-the-farmgate-wedge-in-cocoa-markets-cocoa-years-199900-to-202526): 2026 · Africa Economics · free — Between October 2023 and December 2024, the world price of cocoa rose three and a half fold, reaching a record $12,565 per tonne. On 1 September 2026, with the London contract more than double its March low, Côte d’Ivoire confirmed a farmgate price 57 per cent below the previous main crop. This paper explains why and shows that the standard measure of the share captured by cocoa farmers measures the wrong thing. Administered origins do not promise farmers a share of the current market price, but a share of the price at which a public body sold the crop forward months before harvest. The paper derives an exact identity linking the two and decomposes the variance of the observed share across fourteen Ivorian crop seasons. World-price drift accounts for more than the entire variance, while the policy share accounts for less than half. Identification comes from within Côte d’Ivoire, which used negotiated pricing from 1999 to 2011 and an administered guarantee from 2012. Under liberalisation, farmers’ shares remained broadly stable whether world prices were falling or rising; under administered pricing, the share fell from 66 to 47 per cent. Administered pricing shifts farmers’ income out of booms and into downturns rather than substantially increasing their average share, while farmers involuntarily bear the resulting position. Ghana exhibits the same pattern more sharply. Neither pricing regime resolves cocoa poverty: at the average yield of 350 kilograms per hectare achieved by West African households, the price required for a living income exceeded the annual mean world price in twenty-four of the twenty-seven cocoa years studied.
- [The Chokepoint and the Continent: Trade Effects of the 2026 Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with an Assessment for Africa](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/the-chokepoint-and-the-continent-trade-effects-of-the-2026-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-with-an-assessment-for-africa): 2026 · Africa Economics · free — On 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closed. Using daily satellite observations of the global fleet, this paper estimates the resulting effects on maritime trade and examines their implications for Africa. Transits through Hormuz fell by 93% relative to a seasonally adjusted counterfactual, representing the largest disruption recorded at any major maritime chokepoint during the seven years for which comparable data are available. Seaborne trade across the seven economies with ports inside the Persian Gulf declined by approximately four fifths. The findings show that Hormuz differs fundamentally from bypassable chokepoints such as Suez, Panama and Bab el-Mandeb. When Hormuz closes, ports inside the Gulf have no alternative maritime route; trade is therefore interrupted rather than rerouted. Across 146 economies, the response to exposure follows a threshold rather than a gradual relationship. At the port level, median activity fell by 71% inside the Gulf but increased by 2% outside it. Oman, whose principal ports lie outside the strait, lost only 6%, compared with losses of around 80% among several neighbouring Gulf economies. Outside the Gulf, maritime-volume effects were heterogeneous and generally limited. Africa and the Americas recorded relative increases, Asia remained broadly unchanged, and Europe and Oceania declined. These volume effects, however, conceal the incidence of the oil-price shock. Applying the observed oil-price increase to pre-war net fuel trade indicates a large transfer away from Asia and Europe and towards fuel-exporting economies. For Africa, the principal transmission mechanism was therefore not maritime disruption but energy prices. No significant decline in African seaborne volume or traffic at major corridor gateways is detected. Nevertheless, the price shock divided the continent: nine economies gained and twenty-six lost. Estimated effects range from a gain equivalent to 11% of GDP for Libya to a loss of 3% for Mauritania. Under a scenario in which the disruption persists through 2027, the annual loss for the most exposed African economy could reach 11% of GDP. These estimates represent gross exposure at constant quantities, not welfare effects.
- [Forecasting the 2026/27 European Football Season: A Recency-Weighted Dixon-Coles Framework with Squad-Value Augmentation and Betting-Market Validation](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/forecasting-the-202627-european-football-season-a-recency-weighted-dixon-coles-framework-with-squad-value-augmentation-and-betting-market-validation): 2026 · free — This study forecasts the champion and runner-up of the English Premier League, Spanish LaLiga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1, UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League for the 2026/27 season. The analysis combines 98,239 domestic matches played between July 2000 and August 2026, 253,820 goals, 4,240 UEFA club competition matches and a seventeen-season panel of squad market values. A recency-weighted Dixon-Coles model is estimated by maximum likelihood, augmented with squad-value information and used to simulate 100,000 season paths per domestic league under the applicable competition and tie-break rules. Walk-forward validation across 70 league-seasons shows that the model identifies the eventual champion as its most likely outcome in 62.9% of cases and includes the champion among its top two in 84.3%. It improves on the strongest naïve benchmark by 26% on the log score and produces a calibration slope of 0.96. Squad value provides incremental predictive information, particularly for newly promoted clubs, reducing their out-of-sample prediction error by 12.1%, whereas preseason Elo does not outperform a constant benchmark. The study also documents the limits of statistical forecasting. Across 23,343 out-of-sample matches, the model records a log-loss of 0.9792, compared with 0.9634 for the bookmaker closing market. The forecasts should therefore be interpreted as calibrated season-level probabilities rather than match-betting signals. All projections are dated, reproducible and falsifiable against the 2026/27 season.
- [Fundamentals, Risk Premia and Forecastability in Global Commodity Futures Markets: Evidence from Nine Markets and a Density Forecast to 2028](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/fundamentals-risk-premia-and-forecastability-in-global-commodity-futures-markets-evidence-from-nine-markets-and-a-density-forecast-to-2028): 2026 · free — This working paper examines fundamentals, risk premia, market integration and forecastability across nine major commodity futures markets: cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, wheat, crude oil, natural gas, copper and gold. The analysis combines daily prices from January 2000 to August 2026 with 135 quoted delivery contracts, 9,212 weekly positioning reports, USDA world supply-and-use balances and the August 2026 vintage of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Across 135 market-model-horizon comparisons, none of the tested time-series models provides a statistically robust improvement over a random-walk benchmark after Benjamini–Hochberg and Holm corrections. Nearby Henry Hub futures, however, improve two- and three-month forecasts, while nearby WTI futures provide directionally similar but statistically weaker evidence. The physical inventory channel is strongest when prices are expressed in real terms and inventories are measured before the prices they are intended to explain. The relationship is strong for coffee and sugar, suggestive for wheat and inconclusive for cotton. Neither hedging pressure nor the basis provides stable linear predictive power for subsequent returns, although curve shape materially differentiates realised roll-inclusive outcomes. Cross-market integration is episodic rather than permanent: average correlation peaked during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequently declined considerably. The paper concludes with market- and model-implied scenarios through December 2028, accompanied by empirically evaluated and recalibrated density intervals. All results are generated through a reproducible public-data pipeline.
- [Income, Wellbeing, and the Limits of the African Statistical Record: What the Continent Cannot Currently Measure, and What Follows for the Beyond-GDP Agenda](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/income-wellbeing-and-the-limits-of-the-african-statistical-record-what-the-continent-cannot-currently-measure-and-what-follows-for-the-beyond-gdp-agenda): 2026 · Africa Economics · free — The 2025 System of National Accounts brings distributional accounts inside the international statistical standard, and the African Charter on Statistics already obliges member states to produce harmonised social and distributional information. This paper asks whether African statistical systems can currently support the beyond-GDP agenda those instruments assume, and finds the constraint sharper and more specific than the usual account of scarcity. Assembling a panel from primary sources covering 217 economies, of which 143 enter the cross-sectional estimates and 159 the panel estimates, we show that African reporting breadth matches the rest of the world (89.1 against 83.1 percent of series reported) and that the median reporting lag is identical. The deficit is concentrated in distributional statistics: the Gini index and the poverty headcount run 4 years stale in Africa against 2 elsewhere, precisely the component the 2025 standard newly requires. Only 5 of 49 African economies can populate a six-dimension wellbeing dashboard at all. We then show what this costs analytically. On a 2022-2024 cross-section the income gradient in life satisfaction is strong and log-linear (0.809, SE 0.050, n = 143); a flexible local-polynomial fit improves on it by nothing, and the result survives 7 monotone rescalings of the ladder, region-clustered inference, population weighting and 360 alternative specifications. Complete satiation is ruled out with power of 0.934 at the conventional threshold. A partial flattening is not: power against a halving of the gradient is only 0.410, and equivalence testing succeeds at 0 of 6 thresholds. Testing the African gradient against the global one directly, as an interaction on the pooled panel, the difference is -1.05 (SE 0.611) with an interval containing zero; but the minimum detectable difference is 1.71, larger than the global gradient itself, and equivalence fails at every bound. The comparison is uninformative in both directions, and its imprecision is a direct function of survey coverage. The central policy question, whether growth still buys wellbeing in Africa, cannot be answered on the existing record. That is a measurement finding, and it is addressable. JEL: C81, I31, O11, O55, E01
- [Global Futures Markets and the Middle East Escalation: Comprehensive Futures Intelligence Across Six Commodities, from the Iran-Israel War to the Hormuz Closure (December 2024 to June 2026)](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/global-futures-markets-and-the-middle-east-escalation-comprehensive-futures-across-six-commodities-from-the-iran-israel-war-to-the-hormuz-closure-december-2024-to-june-2026): 2026 · Macroeconomics · free — This analytical report delivers comprehensive futures intelligence across six globally traded commodities (crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton and sugar) over the period December 2024 to June 2026. It traces the full arc of the Middle East escalation, from the Iran-Israel war and the first modern closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the June 2026 de-escalation and reopening. The central finding is that the war risk premium round-tripped. Brent crude crossed $100 for the first time before retreating below $70, while gold reached a $5,595 record then corrected toward $4,000 under a hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar rather than geopolitics. The report documents how the soft commodities decoupled from the conflict and recoupled to a confirmed El Nino, and it revises the earlier cotton call, which had underestimated the oil-to-synthetic substitution channel. A dedicated synthesis examines the implications for Africa, where the macroeconomic squeeze rotated from energy toward currency and weather pressures, with direct relevance for trade finance, central banks and commodity-dependent sovereigns. Across 49 slides, it offers a transferable framework for pricing geopolitical risk in commodity markets.
- [Global Futures Markets & the Middle East Escalation: Comprehensive Futures Intelligence Across Six Commodities — From the Iran-Israel War to the Hormuz Closure (Dec 2024 – Mar 2026)](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/global-futures-markets-the-middle-east-escalation-comprehensive-futures-intelligence-across-six-commodities-from-the-iran-israel-war-to-the-hormuz-closure-dec-2024-mar-2026): 2026 · Macroeconomics · free — This 40-slide intelligence report analyses the price dynamics of six global commodity futures markets — crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar — across a 15-month window spanning six months of pre-conflict baseline through the full Iran-Israel escalation era, culminating in the February 28, 2026 Hormuz closure. The study documents a +50% WTI rally, a record $5,595/oz gold price, and a −70% cocoa correction occurring simultaneously, revealing that geopolitical risk does not transmit uniformly across asset classes. Energy markets absorbed a direct structural shock; gold's bull cycle is driven primarily by central bank de-dollarisation (1,000+ tonnes/year) rather than conflict sentiment; and soft commodities — cocoa, cotton, sugar, coffee — followed supply-side fundamentals entirely independent of Middle East developments. A synthesis section examines Africa's asymmetric double bind: oil-importing nations absorbing rising energy costs while key export commodity revenues remain structurally bearish. The report concludes with a geopolitical risk transmission matrix, a comparative six-commodity dashboard, trade finance implications, and differentiated investment positioning across eight asset classes. Data sources: Bloomberg · Reuters · EIA · ICE · CME · StoneX · World Bank · JP Morgan · Goldman Sachs
- [Urban Futures Unlocked: Financing Africa's Cities](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/urban-futures-unlocked-financing-africa-cities): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — An analysis of urban financing challenges and opportunities in Africa.
- [Unlocking Africa's Agri-Tech Transformation](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/unlocking-africa-agri-tech-transformation): 2025 · Agriculture · free — A report on the potential of agricultural technology to transform Africa's farming sector.
- [The R&D Dividend: Knowledge and Growth](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/rd-dividend-knowledge-growth): 2025 · Africa Economics · subscription — An analysis of the relationship between R&D investment and economic growth.
- [The $2 Trillion Imperative: Africa's Path to a Green Industrial Revolution](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/2-trillion-imperative-africa-green-industrial-revolution): 2025 · Africa Economics · subscription — A strategic analysis of Africa's $2 trillion green industrialization opportunity.
- [South-South Cooperation and Africa: Opportunities](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/south-south-cooperation-africa-opportunities): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — An analysis of South-South cooperation opportunities for Africa.
- [Price Responsiveness of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/price-responsiveness-artificial-intelligence): 2025 · AI & Technology · free — An economic analysis of AI pricing dynamics.
- [Multilateral Development Finance Across Africa: A Quick Overview](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/multilateral-development-finance-africa-overview): 2025 · Trade Finance · free — A concise overview of multilateral development finance flows to Africa.
- [Key Takeaways from DAMA-DMBOK Data Management Framework](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/key-takeaways-dama-dmbok-dmf): 2025 · Data Governance · subscription — A practical synthesis of the DAMA-DMBOK Data Management Body of Knowledge framework.
- [Healthtech & Pharma: Africa's Health Sovereignty](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/healthtech-pharma-africa-health-sovereignty): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — An analysis of Africa's healthtech and pharmaceutical sector.
- [Global Cotton Market Analysis](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/global-cotton-market-analysis): 2025 · Agriculture · free — A data-driven analysis of the global cotton market.
- [Fintech & Digital Payments in Africa](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/fintech-digital-payments-africa): 2025 · Digital & Fintech · free — An overview of the fintech and digital payments landscape across Africa.
- [Fintech and Digital Payments in Africa: From Mobile Money to Global Scale](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/fintech-digital-payments-africa-mobile-money-global-scale): 2025 · Digital & Fintech · free — A comprehensive analysis of Africa's fintech revolution.
- [Cocoa Demand Rewired: Global Grindings & Origin Rise](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/cocoa-demand-rewired-global-grindings-origin-rise): 2025 · Agriculture · free — An analysis of shifting global cocoa demand patterns.
- [Africa's Prosperity Must Be Built by Africans](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-prosperity-built-by-africans): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — A thought-leadership piece arguing for African-led development strategies.
- [Africa's Missing Billions: A Data-Driven Call to End Illicit Financial Flows](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-missing-billions-illicit-financial-flows): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — A data-driven analysis of illicit financial flows from Africa.
- [Africa's Inflation-FX-Debt Stability Framework](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-inflation-fx-debt-stability-framework): 2025 · Macroeconomics · free — A macroeconomic analysis presenting a stability framework for managing inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and debt sustainability.
- [Africa's Digital Future: Innovation Driving Jobs](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-digital-future-innovation-driving-jobs): 2025 · Digital & Fintech · free — This report explores how digital innovation is creating new employment opportunities across Africa.
- [Africa's Commodity Leap: From Raw Loss to Value Power](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-commodity-leap-raw-loss-value-power): 2025 · Africa Economics · subscription — An examination of Africa's commodity value chain transformation.
- [Africa's AI Readiness & the Digital Skills Imperative](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-ai-readiness-digital-skills-imperative): 2025 · AI & Technology · free — This report assesses Africa's readiness for the AI revolution and the critical need for digital skills development.
- [Africa's AI Leap: Finance & Sovereignty](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-ai-leap-finance-sovereignty): 2025 · AI & Technology · free — An analysis of how artificial intelligence is transforming Africa's financial sector and questions of data sovereignty.
- [Africa's Digital Future: Overview](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-digital-future-overview): 2025 · Digital & Fintech · free — A comprehensive overview of Africa's digital transformation journey.
- [Africa's Youth Dividend: Future Workforce](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-youth-dividend-future-workforce): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — This report examines Africa's demographic dividend and the potential of its young population as a transformative workforce.
- [Africa Trade Finance Infrastructure Growth](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-trade-finance-infrastructure-growth): 2025 · Trade Finance · free — An analysis of trade finance infrastructure development across Africa.
- [Africa Economies' Heavy Reliance on Commodities](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-economies-heavy-reliance-commodities): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — An analytical snapshot of African economies' continued heavy reliance on commodities.
- [Africa's Cultural Power: A $100B Growth Frontier](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-cultural-power-100b-growth-frontier): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — This report explores Africa's creative and cultural industries as a $100 billion growth frontier.
- [Africa's $10 Trillion Opportunity: Regional Dynamics](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-10trillion-opportunity-regional-dynamics): 2025 · Africa Economics · free — An in-depth analysis of Africa's $10 trillion economic opportunity, exploring regional dynamics, sectoral drivers, and the conditions needed to unlock transformative growth across the continent.
- [Africa's $10 Trillion Opportunity: Regional Dynamics 2010-2025](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/publications/africa-10trillion-opportunity-regional-dynamics-2010-2025): 2025 · Africa Economics · subscription — A comprehensive analytical report examining Africa's economic trajectory and the $10 trillion opportunity across regional dynamics from 2010 to 2025.

## Store

- [Annales de Mathématiques, Terminale D](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/annales-de-mathmatiques-terminale-d): book · 100.00 XOF — Terminale D, programme MENA (Côte d'Ivoire)
- [Measuring Rigorously Trade in Goods and Services: An Essay for Global and Intra-African Trade Theory](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/measuring-rigorously-trade-in-goods-and-services-an-essay-for-global-and-intra-african-trade-theory): book · 0.00 USD — International Trade Measurement – Global and Intra-African Trade
- [Data Architecture: A Practitioner's Guide](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/data-architecture-a-practitioners-guide): book · 175.00 USD — Data architecture from first principles to enterprise scale. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22351163
- [Calculus Unleashed: Theory to Practice](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/calculus-unleashed-theory-to-practice): book · 50.00 USD — Calculus Unleashed: Theory to Practice — description pending.
- [Algebra Unlocked: Structure to Mastery](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/algebra-unlocked-structure-to-mastery): book · 50.00 USD — Algebra Unlocked: Structure to Mastery — description pending.
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- [Statistics Demystified: Data to Insight](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/statistics-demystified-data-to-insight): book · 50.00 USD — Statistics Demystified: Data to Insight — description pending.
- [Financial Engineering: Models That Win](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/financial-engineering-models-that-win): book · 50.00 USD — Financial Engineering: Models That Win — description pending.
- [Banking Risk Models: A Practitioner Guide](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/banking-risk-models-a-practitioner-guide-1): book · 100.00 USD — Banking Risk Models: A Practitioner Guide — description pending.
- [Microeconomics: Markets Decoded](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/microeconomics-markets-decoded): book · 50.00 USD — Microeconomics: Markets Decoded — description pending.
- [Data Science and Data Engineering on AWS and Databricks](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/data-science-and-data-engineering-on-aws-and-databricks): book · 50.00 USD — A Comprehensive Review
- [Real Analysis: Rigor Made Intuitive](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/store/real-analysis-rigor-made-intuitive): book · 50.00 USD — Real Analysis: Rigor Made Intuitive — description pending.

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## Blog

- [When Hormuz Burns: What the Iran Crisis Reveals About Global Commodity Markets](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/blog/when-hormuz-burns-what-the-iran-crisis-reveals-about-global-commodity-markets): 2026-03-06
- [Côte d'Ivoire Just Cut Farmer Prices by 57% — And the Real Story Is Far Darker Than the Headlines](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/blog/cte-divoire-just-cut-farmer-prices-by-57-and-the-real-story-is-far-darker-than-the-headlines): 2026-03-04
- [Daily Market Brief | March 3, 2026](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/blog/daily-market-brief-march-3-2026): 2026-03-04
- [Strait of Hormuz Crisis: What It Means for Global Trade and Africa](https://www.konanamanidieudonne.org/en/blog/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-what-it-means-for-global-trade-and-africa): 2026-03-03

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