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2026 · Free
This analytical report delivers comprehensive futures intelligence across six globally traded commodities (crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton and sugar) over the period December 2024 to June 2026. It traces the full arc of the Middle East escalation, from the Iran-Israel war and the first modern closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the June 2026 de-escalation and reopening. The central finding is that the war risk premium round-tripped. Brent crude crossed $100 for the first time before retreating below $70, while gold reached a $5,595 record then corrected toward $4,000 under a hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar rather than geopolitics. The report documents how the soft commodities decoupled from the conflict and recoupled to a confirmed El Nino, and it revises the earlier cotton call, which had underestimated the oil-to-synthetic substitution channel. A dedicated synthesis examines the implications for Africa, where the macroeconomic squeeze rotated from energy toward currency and weather pressures, with direct relevance for trade finance, central banks and commodity-dependent sovereigns. Across 49 slides, it offers a transferable framework for pricing geopolitical risk in commodity markets.
2026 · Free
This 40-slide intelligence report analyses the price dynamics of six global commodity futures markets — crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar — across a 15-month window spanning six months of pre-conflict baseline through the full Iran-Israel escalation era, culminating in the February 28, 2026 Hormuz closure. The study documents a +50% WTI rally, a record $5,595/oz gold price, and a −70% cocoa correction occurring simultaneously, revealing that geopolitical risk does not transmit uniformly across asset classes. Energy markets absorbed a direct structural shock; gold's bull cycle is driven primarily by central bank de-dollarisation (1,000+ tonnes/year) rather than conflict sentiment; and soft commodities — cocoa, cotton, sugar, coffee — followed supply-side fundamentals entirely independent of Middle East developments. A synthesis section examines Africa's asymmetric double bind: oil-importing nations absorbing rising energy costs while key export commodity revenues remain structurally bearish. The report concludes with a geopolitical risk transmission matrix, a comparative six-commodity dashboard, trade finance implications, and differentiated investment positioning across eight asset classes. Data sources: Bloomberg · Reuters · EIA · ICE · CME · StoneX · World Bank · JP Morgan · Goldman Sachs
2025 · Free
A macroeconomic analysis presenting a stability framework for managing inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and debt sustainability.
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