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Reports & analysis
Analytical reports and short briefs on African economies, trade and development finance, commodities, fintech and AI.
34 publications
Digital & FintechAnalytical Report
A 12-slide visual summary of the report "Africa's Digital Future: Innovation Driving Jobs". It shows the demographic need for jobs, venture capital trends, where funding goes by region and sector, the startup jobs multiplier, the gender funding gap, digital infrastructure, skills gaps and startup acts, and closes with the path to 10 million startup jobs.
AI & TechnologyAnalytical ReportFeatured
Looks at how African and global development finance institutions (DFIs) are responding to AI, by changing their mandates, instruments and internal operations. Using World Bank, AfDB, IFC, OECD, UN and industry sources, it covers financing for cloud, compute, data and digital infrastructure, new market failures, risk-sharing, IP and data sovereignty, startup and SME pipelines, skills and regulation. It recommends DFI mandates for public digital infrastructure, shared compute, open data and AI training, along with stronger risk-sharing and closer cooperation.
AgricultureAnalytical Report
A 30-slide review of the global cotton market from 2000 to 2025 with a scenario-based outlook for 2026, dated February 2026. It covers production, exports, imports, mill use, prices, stocks and futures for China, India, Brazil, the United States, Pakistan, Australia and West Africa, plus competition from polyester, sustainability and the effect of the US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act on supply chains.
Data GovernanceFramework Summary
Summary slides of DAMA International's book DAMA-DMBOK2 (Data Management Body of Knowledge, Second Edition). The framework and its content belong to DAMA International; this deck condenses it for practitioners. It covers data management principles, data ethics, data governance, architecture and modelling, storage, security, integration, master and reference data, data warehousing and BI, metadata, data quality and data science, and maturity assessment and change management.
MacroeconomicsAnalytical ReportFeatured
This 40-slide intelligence report analyses the price dynamics of six global commodity futures markets — crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar — across a 15-month window spanning six months of pre-conflict baseline through the full Iran-Israel escalation era, culminating in the February 28, 2026 Hormuz closure. The study documents a +50% WTI rally, a record $5,595/oz gold price, and a −70% cocoa correction occurring simultaneously, revealing that geopolitical risk does not transmit uniformly across asset classes. Energy markets absorbed a direct structural shock; gold's bull cycle is driven primarily by central bank de-dollarisation (1,000+ tonnes/year) rather than conflict sentiment; and soft commodities — cocoa, cotton, sugar, coffee — followed supply-side fundamentals entirely independent of Middle East developments. A synthesis section examines Africa's asymmetric double bind: oil-importing nations absorbing rising energy costs while key export commodity revenues remain structurally bearish. The report concludes with a geopolitical risk transmission matrix, a comparative six-commodity dashboard, trade finance implications, and differentiated investment positioning across eight asset classes. Data sources: Bloomberg · Reuters · EIA · ICE · CME · StoneX · World Bank · JP Morgan · Goldman Sachs
Africa EconomicsAnalytical ReportFeatured
On 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closed. Using daily satellite observations of the global fleet, this paper estimates the resulting effects on maritime trade and examines their implications for Africa. Transits through Hormuz fell by 93% relative to a seasonally adjusted counterfactual, representing the largest disruption recorded at any major maritime chokepoint during the seven years for which comparable data are available. Seaborne trade across the seven economies with ports inside the Persian Gulf declined by approximately four fifths. The findings show that Hormuz differs fundamentally from bypassable chokepoints such as Suez, Panama and Bab el-Mandeb. When Hormuz closes, ports inside the Gulf have no alternative maritime route; trade is therefore interrupted rather than rerouted. Across 146 economies, the response to exposure follows a threshold rather than a gradual relationship. At the port level, median activity fell by 71% inside the Gulf but increased by 2% outside it. Oman, whose principal ports lie outside the strait, lost only 6%, compared with losses of around 80% among several neighbouring Gulf economies. Outside the Gulf, maritime-volume effects were heterogeneous and generally limited. Africa and the Americas recorded relative increases, Asia remained broadly unchanged, and Europe and Oceania declined. These volume effects, however, conceal the incidence of the oil-price shock. Applying the observed oil-price increase to pre-war net fuel trade indicates a large transfer away from Asia and Europe and towards fuel-exporting economies. For Africa, the principal transmission mechanism was therefore not maritime disruption but energy prices. No significant decline in African seaborne volume or traffic at major corridor gateways is detected. Nevertheless, the price shock divided the continent: nine economies gained and twenty-six lost. Estimated effects range from a gain equivalent to 11% of GDP for Libya to a loss of 3% for Mauritania. Under a scenario in which the disruption persists through 2027, the annual loss for the most exposed African economy could reach 11% of GDP. These estimates represent gross exposure at constant quantities, not welfare effects.
Africa EconomicsIndependent Working PaperFeatured
Between October 2023 and December 2024, the world price of cocoa rose three and a half fold, reaching a record $12,565 per tonne. On 1 September 2026, with the London contract more than double its March low, Côte d’Ivoire confirmed a farmgate price 57 per cent below the previous main crop. This paper explains why and shows that the standard measure of the share captured by cocoa farmers measures the wrong thing. Administered origins do not promise farmers a share of the current market price, but a share of the price at which a public body sold the crop forward months before harvest. The paper derives an exact identity linking the two and decomposes the variance of the observed share across fourteen Ivorian crop seasons. World-price drift accounts for more than the entire variance, while the policy share accounts for less than half. Identification comes from within Côte d’Ivoire, which used negotiated pricing from 1999 to 2011 and an administered guarantee from 2012. Under liberalisation, farmers’ shares remained broadly stable whether world prices were falling or rising; under administered pricing, the share fell from 66 to 47 per cent. Administered pricing shifts farmers’ income out of booms and into downturns rather than substantially increasing their average share, while farmers involuntarily bear the resulting position. Ghana exhibits the same pattern more sharply. Neither pricing regime resolves cocoa poverty: at the average yield of 350 kilograms per hectare achieved by West African households, the price required for a living income exceeded the annual mean world price in twenty-four of the twenty-seven cocoa years studied.
Working Paper
This study forecasts the champion and runner-up of the English Premier League, Spanish LaLiga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1, UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League for the 2026/27 season. The analysis combines 98,239 domestic matches played between July 2000 and August 2026, 253,820 goals, 4,240 UEFA club competition matches and a seventeen-season panel of squad market values. A recency-weighted Dixon-Coles model is estimated by maximum likelihood, augmented with squad-value information and used to simulate 100,000 season paths per domestic league under the applicable competition and tie-break rules. Walk-forward validation across 70 league-seasons shows that the model identifies the eventual champion as its most likely outcome in 62.9% of cases and includes the champion among its top two in 84.3%. It improves on the strongest naïve benchmark by 26% on the log score and produces a calibration slope of 0.96. Squad value provides incremental predictive information, particularly for newly promoted clubs, reducing their out-of-sample prediction error by 12.1%, whereas preseason Elo does not outperform a constant benchmark. The study also documents the limits of statistical forecasting. Across 23,343 out-of-sample matches, the model records a log-loss of 0.9792, compared with 0.9634 for the bookmaker closing market. The forecasts should therefore be interpreted as calibrated season-level probabilities rather than match-betting signals. All projections are dated, reproducible and falsifiable against the 2026/27 season.
MacroeconomicsIndependent ResearchFeatured
This analytical report delivers comprehensive futures intelligence across six globally traded commodities (crude oil, gold, cocoa, coffee, cotton and sugar) over the period December 2024 to June 2026. It traces the full arc of the Middle East escalation, from the Iran-Israel war and the first modern closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the June 2026 de-escalation and reopening. The central finding is that the war risk premium round-tripped. Brent crude crossed $100 for the first time before retreating below $70, while gold reached a $5,595 record then corrected toward $4,000 under a hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar rather than geopolitics. The report documents how the soft commodities decoupled from the conflict and recoupled to a confirmed El Nino, and it revises the earlier cotton call, which had underestimated the oil-to-synthetic substitution channel. A dedicated synthesis examines the implications for Africa, where the macroeconomic squeeze rotated from energy toward currency and weather pressures, with direct relevance for trade finance, central banks and commodity-dependent sovereigns. Across 49 slides, it offers a transferable framework for pricing geopolitical risk in commodity markets.
Analytical ReportFeatured
This working paper examines fundamentals, risk premia, market integration and forecastability across nine major commodity futures markets: cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, wheat, crude oil, natural gas, copper and gold. The analysis combines daily prices from January 2000 to August 2026 with 135 quoted delivery contracts, 9,212 weekly positioning reports, USDA world supply-and-use balances and the August 2026 vintage of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Across 135 market-model-horizon comparisons, none of the tested time-series models provides a statistically robust improvement over a random-walk benchmark after Benjamini–Hochberg and Holm corrections. Nearby Henry Hub futures, however, improve two- and three-month forecasts, while nearby WTI futures provide directionally similar but statistically weaker evidence. The physical inventory channel is strongest when prices are expressed in real terms and inventories are measured before the prices they are intended to explain. The relationship is strong for coffee and sugar, suggestive for wheat and inconclusive for cotton. Neither hedging pressure nor the basis provides stable linear predictive power for subsequent returns, although curve shape materially differentiates realised roll-inclusive outcomes. Cross-market integration is episodic rather than permanent: average correlation peaked during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequently declined considerably. The paper concludes with market- and model-implied scenarios through December 2028, accompanied by empirically evaluated and recalibrated density intervals. All results are generated through a reproducible public-data pipeline.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical ReportFeatured
The 2025 System of National Accounts brings distributional accounts inside the international statistical standard, and the African Charter on Statistics already obliges member states to produce harmonised social and distributional information. This paper asks whether African statistical systems can currently support the beyond-GDP agenda those instruments assume, and finds the constraint sharper and more specific than the usual account of scarcity. Assembling a panel from primary sources covering 217 economies, of which 143 enter the cross-sectional estimates and 159 the panel estimates, we show that African reporting breadth matches the rest of the world (89.1 against 83.1 percent of series reported) and that the median reporting lag is identical. The deficit is concentrated in distributional statistics: the Gini index and the poverty headcount run 4 years stale in Africa against 2 elsewhere, precisely the component the 2025 standard newly requires. Only 5 of 49 African economies can populate a six-dimension wellbeing dashboard at all. We then show what this costs analytically. On a 2022-2024 cross-section the income gradient in life satisfaction is strong and log-linear (0.809, SE 0.050, n = 143); a flexible local-polynomial fit improves on it by nothing, and the result survives 7 monotone rescalings of the ladder, region-clustered inference, population weighting and 360 alternative specifications. Complete satiation is ruled out with power of 0.934 at the conventional threshold. A partial flattening is not: power against a halving of the gradient is only 0.410, and equivalence testing succeeds at 0 of 6 thresholds. Testing the African gradient against the global one directly, as an interaction on the pooled panel, the difference is -1.05 (SE 0.611) with an interval containing zero; but the minimum detectable difference is 1.71, larger than the global gradient itself, and equivalence fails at every bound. The comparison is uninformative in both directions, and its imprecision is a direct function of survey coverage. The central policy question, whether growth still buys wellbeing in Africa, cannot be answered on the existing record. That is a measurement finding, and it is addressable. JEL: C81, I31, O11, O55, E01
Africa EconomicsAnalytical ReportFeatured
Compares Africa's five economic zones (West, East, North, Central and Southern Africa) over 2010-2020 and 2021-2025, using GDP, population, inflation, trade, aid, FDI, external debt, governance, security and digital-economy indicators. Where official data by zone and year is missing, the report builds a representative dataset from regional statistics and published reports, shown in twenty charts. It closes with policy recommendations on resilience, inclusive growth and the demographic dividend.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Compares Africa's five economic zones over 2010-2020 and 2021-2025: GDP, population, inflation, trade, aid, FDI, external debt, governance, security and the digital economy. Where official data is missing, the report builds a representative dataset from regional statistics and published reports, shown in twenty charts, and ends with policy recommendations.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Looks at Africa's creative and sports economy: film, music, fashion, gaming, design, publishing, broadcasting, digital content and sport. The report sets out GDP contributions, employment and export potential, digital adoption, skills gaps and investment, and discusses estimates that the sector could reach more than US$100 billion a year by 2030. It ends with recommendations for governments, investors, universities and development finance institutions.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
A short snapshot, dated 31 August 2025, of how much African economies depend on commodity exports. Using UNCTAD's State of Commodity Dependence 2025, it notes that 46 of Africa's 54 countries are commodity-dependent, reviews 2025 price trends in energy, metals and agricultural commodities, and goes economy by economy through January to August 2025 before setting out policy implications.
Trade FinanceAnalytical ReportFeatured
Examines why intra-African trade remains low (about 15% of Africa's trade in 2023) and how trade finance and infrastructure investment could raise it under the AfCFTA. Drawing on World Bank, Afreximbank, AfDB, UNCTAD and other data, it sizes the trade finance gap and the infrastructure deficit, and assesses instruments such as letter-of-credit confirmation, trade credit insurance, political risk guarantees and PAPSS. It recommends larger guarantee facilities, more risk sharing, deeper regional payment systems and more private capital through public-private partnerships.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Examines Africa's demographic dividend from a human-capital angle. Using World Bank time series and other sources, the paper looks at population trends, education, skills mismatches, labour-force participation, unemployment, NEET rates and digital connectivity in selected countries. It finds that the working-age share is starting to rise, but low investment in education, weak digital literacy and high NEET rates put the dividend at risk, and it ends with policy recommendations.
AI & TechnologyAnalytical Report
Asks whether Africa is ready for labour markets shaped by automation and AI. Drawing on OECD, African Union Commission, GSMA, IRENA, World Bank and other data, it measures automation risk, gaps in digital literacy, the state of digital infrastructure and the jobs that AI, digital finance and renewable energy could create. Twenty-one charts compare North, West, East, Central and Southern Africa.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Analyses how much value Africa loses by exporting raw commodities, focusing on cocoa, copper and crude oil. Using data from AFREC, Publish What You Pay, the Institute for Security Studies, UNCTAD and others, it shows how little is processed locally and outlines how investment in processing, the AfCFTA and supportive fiscal and regulatory policy could add value and diversify economies.
Digital & FintechAnalytical Report
Looks at how African startups could create jobs. It covers venture capital trends since 2010, the concentration of funding in four countries and in foreign investors, the gender funding gap, digital infrastructure and startup acts. The paper models the potential for startups to create 10 million additional jobs over the next decade and makes recommendations for governments, investors, universities and development finance institutions.
MacroeconomicsAnalytical Report
Examines the links between inflation, exchange-rate volatility and public debt in African economies for 2025-2030. Drawing on AfDB, Afreximbank, World Bank and IMF data and the research literature, it builds baseline, optimistic and stress scenarios, a debt vulnerability matrix and an inflation-FX correlation map by region, and draws lessons for central banks, finance ministries and development finance institutions.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Examines illicit financial flows: money illegally earned, transferred or used across borders, with a focus on Africa. Using Global Financial Integrity, UNCTAD, Brookings and other public data, it presents twenty charts on the scale, channels and regional patterns of these flows. The analysis suggests trade mis-invoicing is the largest channel and extractive commodities account for most African losses, and it recommends stronger tax and customs enforcement, transparency and regional cooperation.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Argues that Africa's prosperity depends on trading more with itself. The paper traces intra-African trade from 1984 to 2024, looks at regional patterns and barriers such as infrastructure, trade costs and overlapping rules, and projects the effect of the AfCFTA under different scenarios in twenty charts. It recommends full AfCFTA implementation, fewer non-tariff barriers, trade infrastructure, support for manufacturing, services and SMEs, and stronger regional institutions.
AgricultureAnalytical Report
Examines the demand side of the cocoa economy through bean grindings, used as a proxy for consumption. Using data from the European Cocoa Association, the Cocoa Association of Asia, ICCO and national statistics, it tracks regional and national grindings over the past decade. It finds that Europe's share is falling, processing in producing countries has grown to about 40% of global grindings, and demand has softened since 2022 as prices spiked.
Digital & FintechAnalytical ReportFeatured
Traces African fintech from Kenya's M-Pesa in 2007 to today's billion-dollar companies. Using Global Findex, EIB, GSMA, FinDev and industry data, and seventeen charts, the paper covers growth trends, regional differences, gender gaps, venture funding and regulatory sandboxes. It finds that mobile money has done more for financial inclusion than traditional banking, while gender gaps, regional disparities and data and regulatory limits remain.
Digital & FintechAnalytical Report
A 14-slide visual summary of African fintech and digital payments. It covers mobile money growth since 2010, financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa, country comparisons of mobile money and bank accounts, gender gaps, Africa's fintech unicorns and payment systems, and ends with an outlook.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Assesses Africa's path to health sovereignty, given that the continent imports most of its medicines and holds about 3% of global pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity. Using Africa CDC, Gavi, WHO and other data, it measures the growth of vaccine and drug manufacturing, maps the health-tech startup ecosystem, reviews universal health coverage indicators, and looks at the automation risks and reskilling needs that AI brings for health workers.
Trade FinanceAnalytical Report
A short data overview of how multilateral development and finance institutions fund Africa: the World Bank, AfDB, EIB, IMF, Islamic Development Bank and AIIB. Based on their annual reports and results data, it compares how much each provides and how it is split by region and sector. Currency conversions are approximate.
AI & TechnologyAnalytical Report
Examines when it becomes economic to replace human labour with AI systems for certain tasks. Using public data and simple economic models, the paper looks at how falling compute prices and better algorithms raise the supply of AI, what drives adoption by organisations, and where the inflection points for labour substitution lie. It notes that about 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with large differences across income groups, and discusses the role of reskilling and policy.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
A seven-page brief, dated 10 September 2025, on what South-South cooperation offers Africa. It summarises recent figures on South-South trade, intra-African trade, Africa's trade with China and FDI into Africa, and sets out policy levers: faster AfCFTA implementation, regional value chains, investment in manufacturing and logistics, quality infrastructure and export finance.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Looks at what it will cost to finance Africa's energy transition. Using public data, the paper measures the gap between the more than USD 200 billion a year needed by 2030 and actual investment, reviews solar corridors, large hydropower projects and early green-hydrogen projects, and presents twenty charts on capacity, investment and access. It recommends blended finance, regulatory reform and cross-border energy corridors.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Examines research and development as a source of knowledge and economic growth, with a focus on international development and finance institutions. Using World Bank, UNESCO and other official data, it looks at global and regional R&D spending since 2000, compares the budgets of major multilateral institutions, and reviews evidence on the economic returns to public research. It argues for sustained investment in research at national and multilateral level.
AgricultureAnalytical Report
Examines why African agriculture remains uncompetitive and how it could become more productive. The report looks at mechanisation, irrigation, storage, digital adoption and investment in agritech, and at the AI skills gap, with twenty charts. It also estimates automation risks and identifies reskilling priorities for governments, agribusiness, universities and development finance institutions.
Africa EconomicsAnalytical Report
Examines Africa's rapid urbanisation and how to finance it. The paper measures housing and infrastructure gaps, reviews smart-city pilots such as Cape Town, Lagos and Kigali, and assesses financing models including public-private partnerships, blended finance, sovereign wealth funds and pension funds. It also considers how automation could change urban services and construction, and which workforce skills will be needed.